托福阅读
对于很多准备考托福的同学来说，不知道准备得怎么样呢？今天就和我爱学习网的小编一起来了解一下托福阅读素材：世界经济蒸蒸日上。
The world economy
On the rise
A synchronised global upturn is under way. Thank stimulus， not the populists
世界经济
蒸蒸日上
全球经济正在同步上扬，要感谢的是刺激政策而非民粹主义
ECONOMIC and political cycles have a habit of being out of sync. Just ask George Bush senior， who lost the presidential election in 1992 because voters blamed him for the recent recession. Or Chancellor Gerhard Schröder， booted out赶走开除by German voters in 2005 after imposing painful reforms， only to see Angela Merkel reap the rewards.经济和政治的周期往往并不同步（装逼小词）。看看老布什，1992年他输掉了总统竞选，因为选民把当时的经济衰退怪在他的头上。再看看施罗德，在实施了痛苦的改革后，他在2005年被德国选民撵下台，眼睁睁看着默克尔坐享其成。
Today， almost ten years after the most severe financial crisis since the Depression， a broad-based economic upswing is at last under way. In America， Europe， Asia and the emerging markets， for the first time since a brief rebound in 2010， all the burners are firing at once.今天，大萧条之后最严重的金融危机已过去近十年，一场大范围的经济增长终于到来。经历2010年的短暂（别老short， tempor...）反弹之后，美国、欧洲、亚洲和新兴市场第一次一起开动马力。
大萧条（Great Depression）：是指1929年至1933年之间发源于美国，并后来波及许多资本主义国家的经济危机。——喵大歪 MTI百科/MTI词汇翻译 楼
But the political mood is sour. A populist rebellion， nurturedby years of sluggish growth， is still spreading. Globalisation is out of favour. An economic nationalist sits in the White House. This week all eyes were on Dutch elections featuring Geert Wilders， a Dutch Islamophobic ideologue， just one of many European malcontents.但是政治气氛却令人失望。因多年经济增长缓慢而滋生（视角转换）的民粹主义反叛仍在蔓延。全球化不受待见。主政白宫的是一位经济民族主义者。本周，所有人都盯着荷兰大选，主角是荷兰的反穆斯林倡导者海尔特·维尔德斯（Geert Wilders），而他仅仅是欧洲众多对现实不满者之一。
This dissonance is dangerous. If populist politicians win credit for a more buoyant economy， their policies will gain credence， with potentially devastating effects. As a long-awaited upswing lifts spirits and spreads confidence， the big question is： what lies behind it？ 这样的错位非常危险。如果将更繁荣的经济归功于（翻译课上讲过）民粹政治家，那么他们的政策就将赢得民众信任，这可能会有毁灭性的影响。人们期盼已久的经济增长振奋了精神、传播了信心，现在的重要问题是：究竟是什么推动了增长？
All together now
The past decade has been marked by false dawns， in which optimism at the start of a year has been undone—whether by the euro crisis， wobbles in emerging markets， the collapse of the oil price or fears of a meltdown in China. America’s economy has kept growing， but always into a headwind. A year ago， the Federal Reserve had expected to raise interest rates four times in 2016. Global frailties put paid to that.
大家一起来
过去十年曾经呈现出（视角转换）多次虚假的曙光。由于欧元危机、新兴市场动荡、油价暴跌或是对中国经济崩溃的担忧等种种原因，一年之初鼓起的乐观情绪最后总是烟消云散。美国的经济在持续增长，但始终遭遇逆风。一年前，美联储原本预计在2016年加息四次。全球经济虚弱让这一计划落空。
Now things are different. This week the Fed raised rates for the second time in three months—thanks partly to the vigour of the American economy， but also because of growth everywhere else. Fears about Chinese overcapacity， and of a yuan devaluation， have receded. In February factory-gateinflation was close to a nine-year high. In Japan in the fourth quarter capital expenditure grew at its fastest rate in three years. The euro area has been gathering speed since 2015. The European Commission’s economic-sentiment index（词汇翻译） is at its highest since 2011； euro-zone unemployment is at its lowest since 2009. 现在的情况则不同。本周美联储三个月来第二次加息，部分原因是美国经济的活力，但也多亏了全球各地的增长。对中国产能过剩以及人民币贬值的担忧已经消退。2月，中国工业品出厂价格涨幅（词汇翻译）已接近九年来最高点。日本第四季度资本支出的增长达到三年来最快速度。欧元区自2015年以来逐渐提速。欧盟委员会的经济景气指数（economic-sentiment index）达到2011年以来的最高点；欧元区失业率则为2009年以来最低。
The bellwethers of global activity look sprightly， too. In February South Korea， a proxy代理人for world trade， notched up赢得，创下 export growth above 20%. Taiwanese manufacturers have posted 12 consecutive months of expansion. Even in places inured to recession the worst is over. The Brazilian economy has been shrinking for eight quarters but， with inflation expectations tamed， interest rates are now falling. Brazil and Russia are likely to add to global GDP this year， not subtract from it. The Institute of International Finance reckons that in January the developing world hit its fastest monthly rate of growth since 2011.全球经济活动的风向标看起来也很有活力。作为全球贸易的风向标，韩国2月出口增长超过20%。台湾制造企业已经连续12个月扩大生产。即便是深陷衰退的地方，最坏的境况也已过去。巴西经济已持续八个季度萎缩，但随着通胀预期降低，利率如今正在下跌。巴西和俄罗斯有望为今年全球GDP增长做出贡献，而不再是拖后腿。据国际金融研究所（The Institute of International Finance）估算，1月发展中国家的月增长率已达2011年来的最快水平。
This is not to say the world economy is back to normal. Oil prices fell by 10% in the week to March 15th on renewed fears of oversupply； a sustained fall would hurt the economies of producers more than it would benefit consumers. China’s build-up of debt is of enduring concern. Productivity growth in the rich world remains weak. Outside America， wages are still growing slowly. And in America， surging business confidence has yet to translate into surging investment. 这并不意味着全球经济已恢复正常。因为再度担心供大于求，到3月15日的一周内油价下跌了10%；如果油价持续下跌，对产油国经济的损害会比消费者获得的益处更大。中国债务的积累始终令人担忧。富裕世界的生产力增长仍然疲软。美国以外，工资增长仍然缓慢。而在美国国内，汹涌而来的商业信心尚未转化为澎湃的投资。
Entrenching the recovery calls for a delicate balancing-act. As inflation expectations rise， central banks will have to weigh the pressure to tighten policy against the risk that， if they go too fast， bond markets and borrowers will suffer. Europe is especially vulnerable， because the European Central Bank is reaching the legal limits of the bond-buying programme it has used to keep money cheap in weak economies. 巩固经济复苏需要精巧的平衡之道。随着通胀预期上升，央行将不得不仔细斟酌采取紧缩政策，以免通胀过快，令证券市场和借款人蒙受损失。欧洲尤其脆弱，因为欧洲央行已接近债券购买计划的法律上限，欧洲央行一直利用这一计划令疲软经济体的货币保持低位。
The biggest risk， though， is the lessons politicians draw. Donald Trump is singing his own praises after good job and confidence numbers. It is true that the stockmarket and business sentiment have been fired up by promises of deregulation and a fiscal boost. But Mr Trump’s claims to have magically jump-started job creation are sheer braggadocio. The American economy has added jobs for 77 months in a row. 不过，最大的风险是政客们从中得出的经验。特朗普在就业数字可喜、信心指数上涨之后正自吹自擂。的确，股票市场和商业行情在放松管制和财政刺激的承诺下看涨。但特朗普宣称自己神奇地快速创造了就业是彻头彻尾的吹牛。美国经济的就业岗位已经连续77个月增加了。
No Keynes， no gains
Most important， the upswing has nothing to do with Mr Trump’s “America First” economic nationalism. If anything， the global upswing vindicates the experts that today’s populists often decry. economists have long argued that recoveries from financial crashes take a long time： research into 100 banking crises by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard University suggests that， on average， incomes get back to pre-crisis levels only after eight long years. Most economists also argue that the best way to recover after a debt crisis is to clean up balance-sheets quickly， keep monetary policy loose and apply fiscal stimulus wherever prudently possible.
没有凯恩斯，没有收获
最重要的是，经济上涨与特朗普“美国第一”的经济民族主义没有任何关系。如果有，只能说全球经济上涨证明了当下民粹主义者常常谴责的那些专家是正确的。经济学家长久以来都认为从金融危机中复苏需要很长时间：哈佛大学的卡门·莱因哈特（Carmen Reinhart）和肯尼斯·罗格夫（Kenneth Rogoff）研究了一百次银行业危机。他们指出，平均而言，只有经过长达八年后工资才能恢复到危机前的水平。大部分经济学家还认为债务危机后最好的复苏方法是迅速清理资产负债表、维持宽松的货币政策，并且在尽可能谨慎的前提下，实施财政刺激。
Today’s recovery validates that prescription. The Fed pinned interest rates to the floor until full employment was in sight. The ECB’s bond-buying programme has kept borrowing costs in crisis-prone countries tolerable， though Europe’s misplaced emphasis on austerity， recently relaxed， made the job harder. In Japan rises in VAT have scuppered previous recoveries； this time the government wisely deferred an increase until at least 2019.今日的复苏验证（别老prove）了这一良方。美联储将利率维持（别老keep）在低位，直至充分就业来临。欧洲央行的债券购买计划让易发危机的国家能够负担得起贷款成本，尽管欧洲错误地强调紧缩（最近有所松动），让就业更加困难。日本过去上调消费税令之前的复苏付之东流；这一次政府明智地将加税延后到最早在2019年才实施。
The tussle over who created the recovery is about more than bragging rights. An endorsement for populist economics would favour insurgent parties in countries like France， where the far-right Marine Le Pen is standing for president. It would also favour the wrong policies. 争论是谁成功让经济复苏不只是争夺夸耀的权利。对民粹主义经济学的认可会有利于一些国家的反叛党派，比如法国极右翼的玛丽娜·勒庞（Marine Le Pen）正在参加总统竞选。这也会有利于错误的政策。
Mr Trump’s proposed tax cuts would pump up the economy that now least needs support—and complicate the Fed’s task. Fortified by misplaced belief in their own world view， the administration’s protectionists might urge Mr Trump to rip up the infrastructure of globalisation （bypassing the World Trade Organisation in pursuing grievances against China， say）， risking a trade war. A fiscal splurge at home and a stronger dollar would widen America’s trade deficit， which may strengthen their hand. Populists deserve no credit for the upsurge. But they could yet snuff it out. 特朗普提出的减税会让经济升温，而此刻的经济最不需要支持，减税政策还会让美联储的工作变得更复杂。这届政府的贸易保护主义者会因他们自己世界观的错误信仰而更加坚定，可能会敦促特朗普破坏全球化的基础架构（例如，绕过世贸组织来发泄对中国的不满），从而可能引发贸易战。国内的财政刺激和强劲的美元会扩大美国的贸易赤字，这有可能增强他们的力量。 民粹主义者对于经济上涨毫无功劳可言，反而可能会扼杀这一切。
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